An increase in Macomb's housing inventory?

Is Macomb's housing inventory finally beginning to improve? Maybe so.

Back when I first joined our office in late 2004, I didn't have many clients, so I spent most of my days poking around online, looking at real estate sites. I quickly realized the power of realtor.com (at the time, no one else was offering all listings by all real estate offices) and often browsed around on that site, as if I were someone looking for a house in Macomb. I wanted to see realtor.com as a typical consumer did.

On realtor.com's welcome screen, you can start your search by entering either the city/state or ZIP code. I always would opt for the latter -- much fewer keystrokes that way -- and leave all the search criteria (price range and bedroom/bathroom count) blank, so I'd be pulling up absolutely everything for sale. (We're a small town, so even if you pull up everything, you're still going to be looking at a relatively short list.)

Then I'd arrive at a second screen: the barometer of our market.

This second screen is pretty simple; it just tells how many properties match your search criteria. Because I'd keep my parameters open to include everything in Macomb, that number would give me a quick answer to the number of Macomb properties listed through real estate agents.

I'll admit that most people probably wouldn't care about this sort of statistic. But I had the geeky interest to be curious (I was an unofficial economics minor in college, with a desire to understand this stuff) and I certainly had the time (i.e., few clients). So I started keeping track of things.

In late 2004, there were around 135 to 145 Macomb listings showing up for sale on realtor.com. The total stayed around that level until the end of the year.

In early 2005, the number of listings began dropping -- and was soon under 100. The drought continued for over two years, with the low point coming in late 2006, when there were only about 70 listings for sale.

Things improved in early 2007, with the number trending upward a little bit, into the 80s and low 90s.

Then this month, we reached another signpost: The number broke 100. Two weeks ago, we were up to 105 listings.

I don't consider this recent increase in housing inventory an absolute turnaround. Call it a mini-bump. We're still not back to late-2004 levels.

And obviously, these figures only include properties listed through agents, and there have been many things listed "for sale by owner" (FSBO) during this time frame. But what matters, I think, is that we keep the comparisons over time consistent, and the discussion here is doing that -- this number is a true comparison of agent listings in 2004 to agent listings right now (and during all the time that passed in the interim).

Moreover -- and this is crucial -- while the number of agent listings has increased, it's done so in spite of a possible increase in FSBO properties.

Or, to phrase this idea in a different way: If the number of agent listings goes down, we could surmise that this could (maybe) have been caused by an increase in FSBOs. That is, more people are selling houses on their own, without agents involved, so the agents have fewer listings. But because the number of agent listings went up, the FSBO factor could only be (1) getting outpaced by the number of agent listings or (2) in a state of decline. (My vote's for the former.)

I'm not celebrating all this as some sort of triumphant Return of the Realtor. Instead, I'm more interested in figuring out what's happening and why. One thing I learned about economics a few years ago, from some great University of Illinois professors, is that macro-economics -- the study of entire markets or systems, not just individual companies or incidents -- can be complex and difficult to keep in focus. But if you have some actual data of what's occurring . . . well, that's at least a start.

Without my realtor.com statistics, I'd just be on my soapbox in the park talking about all this. With it, I'm confident I'm observing a real trend.