An increase in Macomb's housing inventory?

Is Macomb's housing inventory finally beginning to improve? Maybe so.

Back when I first joined our office in late 2004, I didn't have many clients, so I spent most of my days poking around online, looking at real estate sites. I quickly realized the power of realtor.com (at the time, no one else was offering all listings by all real estate offices) and often browsed around on that site, as if I were someone looking for a house in Macomb. I wanted to see realtor.com as a typical consumer did.

On realtor.com's welcome screen, you can start your search by entering either the city/state or ZIP code. I always would opt for the latter -- much fewer keystrokes that way -- and leave all the search criteria (price range and bedroom/bathroom count) blank, so I'd be pulling up absolutely everything for sale. (We're a small town, so even if you pull up everything, you're still going to be looking at a relatively short list.)

Then I'd arrive at a second screen: the barometer of our market.

This second screen is pretty simple; it just tells how many properties match your search criteria. Because I'd keep my parameters open to include everything in Macomb, that number would give me a quick answer to the number of Macomb properties listed through real estate agents.

I'll admit that most people probably wouldn't care about this sort of statistic. But I had the geeky interest to be curious (I was an unofficial economics minor in college, with a desire to understand this stuff) and I certainly had the time (i.e., few clients). So I started keeping track of things.

In late 2004, there were around 135 to 145 Macomb listings showing up for sale on realtor.com. The total stayed around that level until the end of the year.

In early 2005, the number of listings began dropping -- and was soon under 100. The drought continued for over two years, with the low point coming in late 2006, when there were only about 70 listings for sale.

Things improved in early 2007, with the number trending upward a little bit, into the 80s and low 90s.

Then this month, we reached another signpost: The number broke 100. Two weeks ago, we were up to 105 listings.

I don't consider this recent increase in housing inventory an absolute turnaround. Call it a mini-bump. We're still not back to late-2004 levels.

And obviously, these figures only include properties listed through agents, and there have been many things listed "for sale by owner" (FSBO) during this time frame. But what matters, I think, is that we keep the comparisons over time consistent, and the discussion here is doing that -- this number is a true comparison of agent listings in 2004 to agent listings right now (and during all the time that passed in the interim).

Moreover -- and this is crucial -- while the number of agent listings has increased, it's done so in spite of a possible increase in FSBO properties.

Or, to phrase this idea in a different way: If the number of agent listings goes down, we could surmise that this could (maybe) have been caused by an increase in FSBOs. That is, more people are selling houses on their own, without agents involved, so the agents have fewer listings. But because the number of agent listings went up, the FSBO factor could only be (1) getting outpaced by the number of agent listings or (2) in a state of decline. (My vote's for the former.)

I'm not celebrating all this as some sort of triumphant Return of the Realtor. Instead, I'm more interested in figuring out what's happening and why. One thing I learned about economics a few years ago, from some great University of Illinois professors, is that macro-economics -- the study of entire markets or systems, not just individual companies or incidents -- can be complex and difficult to keep in focus. But if you have some actual data of what's occurring . . . well, that's at least a start.

Without my realtor.com statistics, I'd just be on my soapbox in the park talking about all this. With it, I'm confident I'm observing a real trend.

We now own macombland.com

Our office website just got an easier-to-remember name. How's macombland.com sound? (Kind of like an amusement park, I suppose, but maybe Macomb could use one.)

A few weeks ago, I learned (via RE/MAX's corporate office) that our RE/MAX-approved domain name of remax-unified-macomb-il.com is allowed to have a secondary domain we can use to drive traffic over to our main site. We can name this secondary domain anything we want, provided that (1) we don't use the word "RE/MAX" and (2) the domain name is actually available.

We did some checking and found that macombrealestate.com, macombproperties.com, macombhomes.com, and macombhouses.com all have already been taken, some by people who don't even seem to be doing much with them. But macombland.com, surprisingly, was available. We quickly bought the rights.

Our old domain name of remax-unified-macomb-il.com is staying right where it is. But we'll start using macombland.com in all our print advertising from now on. And anytime we're telling someone -- either in person or over the phone -- our website address, we'll just say macombland.com. We won't even have to spell it out for them.

Good real estate websites, part 2

In an earlier post, I mentioned some of the best real estate sites to visit if you're looking to find a house. What about the "for sale by owner" sites? Aren't they good, too?

Sure, and I encourage you to visit them.

But right now, the for sale by owner (FSBO) market is fragmented. There isn't one site where you can view all FSBO listings in a given city or ZIP code. (Not a surprise, really. Each FSBO website is run by a different company, and each one wants to make money off folks looking to sell their homes.)

I recommend starting with realtor.com if you're the sort of person who wants to visit one site and view as much real estate as possible. But if you're an inquisitive and thorough sort, you'll want to get a complete picture of everything by also visiting some FSBO sites.

There are some cities where FSBOs have a huge market share -- sometimes as much as 30% of all the houses for sale. That's not the case in west-central Illinois, and on most of the sites listed below, you'll be lucky to find one or two houses for sale in a given town.

One final note: I ran my estimates (included below) on what it would cost to run ads in west-central Illinois. These numbers may not hold true for bigger markets in more metropolitan areas of the U.S.

To the list!

Good FSBO sites:
forsalebyowner.com -- Definitely seems to be the most popular of the FSBO sites, and my Alexa toolbar ranks it 9,113 -- meaning that, at this moment in time, Alexa considers it the 9,113th most popular site on the Internet. (Alexa ranks yahoo.com #1, msn.com #2, and google.com #3.) Rankings aren't a flawless science, but I do think they matter; if you're going to sell your house on your own, you want it to be posted on a website people actually visit.

If you want to sell your house, paying $199 at forsalebyowner.com lets you post it on their site indefinitely; if you pay $249, they'll also give you a yard sign. They also offer an intriguing feature: For $349, they'll include the aforementioned stuff, plus allow you unlimited access to their toll-free real estate consultation line. (I'm not sure how great the advice on their consultation line actually is, but then again, I imagine some people would tell you that they've received rotten advice from real estate agents hired for a lot more than $349.) For $599, forsalebyowner.com will post your house on yahoo.com and some other websites, too.

owners.com -- Ranked 30,701 by Alexa. $49.95 lets you post your house on their site until it sells. $79.95 does the same thing, plus a yard sign. $179.95 is everything plus a virtual tour. They also offer a separate package: $377 lets you post your house in the local multiple listing service (MLS) -- the database of properties overseen by real estate agents in that area. (I like this idea of MLS a la carte, but it's been highly controversial in some parts of the U.S., and lawsuits have been filed because of it. I plan to write more about all this in a future post.)

homesbyowner.com -- Ranked 49,529 by Alexa. This site will give you a free (!) listing and one photo. $79.99 will give you a yard sign and allow you to post up to five photos. $129.99 allows you up to 20 photos and a virtual tour.

fsbo.com -- Ranked 58,620 by Alexa. $69.95 posts your house on their site for nine months, and for $10 more, they'll throw in a yard sign. Or, for $499, they'll post your house in the local MLS.

byowner.com -- Ranked 141,414 by Alexa. $249 to list your house (with six photos) until it sells. $49 extra for yard signs.

And then there are the folks who go the FSBO route and never do anything more than stick a sign in the front yard. Obviously, you won't find those houses on any websites, and often the only way to stumble onto them is by driving up and down streets in a given town. But maybe Google's team of experts can come up with a infrared-like map that can detect all yard signs (both the FSBO and real estate agent kind) from low-earth orbit, then post the results on an easy-to-navigate Google site. Why not?

New chief of Macomb zoning

Earlier this year, Macomb hired a new community development coordinator -- the public official who's consulted on all things zoning -- named Ed Basch. He comes to Macomb from Burlington, Iowa.

The Macomb Eagle ran a good story about Basch and his approach to the job. How will he handle the multi-family zoning imbroglio? The Eagle story gives some clues:

Basch is aware of the ongoing conflicts between single-family and multi-family residential areas. Having once worked as an administrator for the Village of Savoy, on the edge of Champaign, he said he has experience with student housing issues.

"One of the challenges is, 'How do we best blend and layer different land uses?" he said. "Part of that will be addressed in the comprehensive plan.

"Slowly, over time, I'd like to see less and less situations where an R-1 or R-2 area - single family homes - are directly up against multi-family," he said, cautioning, "That will take time."

I'm curious about Basch's specific proposals on all this. We'll see.